Omdia analysts have published a forecast about the possible consequences of Apple‘s IDFA policy. They assumed that this year the advertising market in iOS applications will fall by 17% at once.

“A third of the decline will be due to the loss of money due to the change in monetization,” explained Guillermo Escofet, chief analyst at Omdia. “The remaining two—thirds are the redistribution of income in favor of Android (iOS). The latter will happen due to the fact that the advertising market on iOS will lose 60% of its advantage over Android.”

According to the Omdia report, last year iOS users spent 4.7 times more on apps than owners of Android devices. Now marketers will have to look for tools that can compensate for the losses from Apple’s new policy.

Escofet also noted that the loss of attribution and the ability to target mobile advertising on iOS “should lead to an increase in demand and higher prices for advertising for Android.”

But despite everything, analysts are convinced that by 2024 the advertising market in iOS applications will almost completely catch up.

Recall that in June last year, Apple announced that users will be able to disable IDFA for each individual application. Initially, the company planned to launch a new privacy policy in September, but then postponed it. The approximate start of the updated rules is early spring 2021.