On September 27, Nintendo released a new game. So far, this is a mobile exclusive. The project is called Dragalia Lost. There is no hype around him. Analysts are in a hurry to bury him. We analyze what exactly they did not take into account.
Dragalia Lost is a high—budget role-playing project for smartphones. The core is built on action-packed battles. The player’s hero enters the arena, through which he moves freely, dodges enemies, aims on impact, and so on.
There is also a construction part in the game, but it is not advertised
Less than a week after its release, analysts sounded the alarm.
Sensor Tower has announced that the project is not raising enough money. In the first five days since its release, its revenue from Japan and the United States turned out to be less than that of any other Nintendo mobile game in the same period.
Concerns about the bright future of the game were also expressed by Bloomberg. The publication called the start of sales mediocre. It also noted that investors will definitely be disappointed with the weak result. The same publication noted that on Wednesday (after publication), Nintendo shares fell by 2%.
Both analysts and journalists were confused that Dragalia Lost earned “only” $3 million from September 27 to October 1. The game collected this amount from Japan and the USA. It is still unavailable in most other regions.
This is a good figure. But if you compare it with previous Nintendo releases, it seems less impressive. The fact is that mobile Animal Crossing collected $4.6 million in Japan and the USA in the first five days, Super Mario Run — $8.3 million, and Fire Emblem Heroes – $13 million at all.
The same comparison of financial indicators for the first five days
Such a comparison allowed Nintendo to give unfavorable ratings.
However, I’m sure the analysts were in a hurry. Plus, they did not take into account numerous factors, because of which a more restrained launch was expected.
New brand
The first and most understandable factor is the new brand. For IP Dragalia Lost there are not three decades and dozens of games, as in the case of Mario. And there is no army of fans who have spent hundreds of hours on Animal Crossing on 3DS in recent years.
So is it any wonder that the Dragalia Lost box office turned out to be smaller at the start? Games under a new brand always enter the market worse than those who are lucky with a popular name.
New partner
The second point is the change of partner. All previous mobile games were created by Nintendo together with DeNA. The novelty is an exception. Cygames assumed the role of producer and co-contractor.
Cygames is unknown outside Japan. The reason is simple. Like most local teams, Cygames specializes in the native market. That did not prevent her from earning $ 600 million in the last three years alone (excluding those games that she did not publish herself).
When a partner changes, a different behavior of the project in the market is expected. Even if we are talking about an experienced and well-established company, which is Cygames.
Dragalia Lost is very close in art to all the latest Cygames worksFocus on the Japanese market
The third factor is a consequence of the partnership with Cygames. The game in terms of visual solutions, mechanics, interface is primarily focused on the Japanese market.
The experience of Puzzle & Dragons and Monster Strike suggests that Japanese mobile blockbusters often perform much worse in the American market than in their native one.
The latter is by no means the rule. This is perfectly demonstrated by Fate/Grand Order or Rage of Bahamut from the same Cygames seven years ago, which for several months was the highest-grossing Android game in the USA. But there is always an increased risk that such a title may not enter one of the main markets, and therefore earn less.
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With all these factors, the debut result of $ 3 million is an excellent result, and not a reason for criticism. Plus, a week for a fritupley project is very little to draw far—reaching conclusions. Already, Dragalia Lost is ahead of all other Nintendo games in the box office in Japan and the USA. And in general, it hangs high.
Dragalia Lost has the sixth place in the Japanese box office (DataMagic, data for October 4)