Matej Lancaric, formerly the head of marketing teams at Pixel Federation, BoomBit, and SuperScale, wrote an extensive article about the importance of a prolonged soft launch for mobile games. He is convinced that projects lacking proper testing risk failing upon release.
TrainStation 3 by Pixel Federation
As Lancaric writes, many mobile developers settle for a month, or even just a few days, of a soft launch, but such a short test doesn't provide an adequate picture. In his view, the soft launch should last no less than three months, and preferably from six months.
“I really want to know what the retention curve looks like. Not just on the first, third, and seventh days, but also on the 14th and 30th days, and ideally also on the 60th and 90th days. Early-stage retention metrics can be misleading: a game that performs well on the seventh day may sharply decline in popularity by the 30th day. Without long-term testing, you won't be able to foresee this,” Lancaric explained.
The same, the expert noted, applies to the dynamics of LTV with ROAS. Initial numbers can't give a full picture, but an extended soft launch allows for experiments and observations.
Lancaric pointed out that in a good scenario by the time of release, a game should have a retention rate of 40% on the first day (ideally 50%), 20% on the seventh day, and 10% on the 30th day. The numbers may vary depending on the genre, but it is crucial for the retention curve to be "healthy" without sharp drops. Additionally, the LTV should be higher than the CPI—without this, releasing the game is risky.