The analytical company SuperData has adjusted its forecast for the augmented reality market for the third time. According to new data, by the end of the year its revenues will amount to $6.7 billion, and investments in VR and AR studios will approach $1 billion.Remark: it is not completely clear from the published reports what kind of data the company takes into account when talking about market turnover.
Based on the report and its schedule, it can be concluded that the company counts both device sales, game sales, and even revenue from mobile AR gaming projects (for example, Pokémon GO).
Initially, SuperData stated that the XR industry would earn $7.7 billion in 2020. Later, the company adjusted its forecast to $6.3 billion, and last quarter raised it to $6.9 billion.
Now the company has submitted a report for the third quarter, in which it again slightly changed its forecasts for the results of the year. This time she lowered them. Analysts explain the edits by the COVID-19 pandemic, which affected both the releases of new helmets and the supply of devices.
According to the new estimate, most of the revenue in 2020 will come from mobile AR — $2.9 billion. Revenue in the VR helmet segment will reach $2.7 billion, and AR/MR helmets will account for $1.4 billion.
SuperData forecast for XR market revenue until 2023Not only segment valuation has decreased, but also investment expectations.
SuperData now believes that investments in VR and AR companies will amount to $915 million by the end of the year. This is less than predicted ($923 million in April) and less than was invested in the segment a year earlier ($1 billion).
The report also reports that by the end of July-September 2020, Oculus Quest remained the most popular VR device (161 thousand helmets sold). SuperData expects that the release of Quest 2 and the upcoming holiday season will raise demand for the helmet, and by the end of 2021, its sales will reach 3 million devices.
It is also reported that after the release of Half-Life: Alyx in March, the Valve Index helmet sold a larger circulation than all other VR devices for PC over the past year combined. In the third quarter, the company sold 56 thousand helmets, and this figure could have been higher if not for supply problems.
Also on the topic:
- Facebook has merged AR and VR divisions under the name Facebook Reality LabsThe co-founder of SuperData has released a book about business processes in the gaming industry
- Research: which players get seasick in VR helmets and why
- Is there any news?
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