Today, the Facebook group Farminers raised the question: how much will the Russian mobile application market earn by the end of 2013. We also decided to count. What we got – read in the material.
So, we started by looking for the market turnover for the past year (where turnover is the volume of sales without advertising). We had two numbers. The first is from the ubiquitous J’son & Partners Consulting, which recently published its own forecast for this year, the second is from Game Insight.
Analysts estimated that in 2012, the Russian mobile software market reached a turnover of $ 137 million, and Alice Chumachenko’s company made a forecast this spring, according to which it turned out that it was unlikely to reach more than $ 130 million.
As you can see, in the end the gap turned out to be quite small. And we took for granted the amount received by J’son & Partners Consulting.
To find out, based on the amount received, the market volumes for 2013, its growth rates were needed. The global pace, according to ABI Research and Gartner, will be no more than 62%.
We decided to start by extrapolating these percentages to the figure we already have (137 million). The approach is wrong, because it is clear that the pace of the Russian market can seriously differ from the world (last year Russia was among the three countries with the highest growth dynamics – 115%). However, we still couldn’t resist (especially since we didn’t have any other data, not counting from J’son & Partners Consulting). As a result, we received a figure of 221 million.
Growth rates of the Russian mobile application market from May 2011 to May 2012That is, if we assume that the dynamics of the Russian mobile app market at least does not lag behind the world (given the fact that in March of this year Russia was in the top ten of the box office countries on Google Play and iPad App Store, it is not difficult), then it is clear that the forecast for this year is clearly more than $ 200 million.
A couple more numbers in the piggy bank.
According to Distimo, the revenue of Russian mobile games on the iPhone App Store increased from $1.4 million in May 2012 to $3.5 million in May 2013 (after January it was always above $3.3 million). The iPad in Russia earns more than the iPhone. Their total average monthly income may well reach $7 million. That’s $84 million for the year. Games account for only 75% of the iOS market in the world. That is, we add 25% and get $105 million. iOS only.
You can try to calculate it differently.
According to Newzoo, there are more than 6 million paying mobile players in Russia. The LTV of the Russian player on the iPhone iOS is $20. On Google Play – less, on iPad iPhone – more. So let’s take $20 for the arithmetic mean. And we get another figure for all platforms – $ 120 million. But this is a very inaccurate number, besides only for games.
Plus, you need to understand that the estimates given by Distimo are more than six months old, and the Newzoo figures are generally for 2012.
And the market is not standing still. In the first half of this year alone, more than 7.4 million smartphones were sold. This is 44% more than in the first half of 2012. The tablet market has grown by 225%. For the first six months of this year, it was sold, according to “M.Video” – 2.7 million “tablets”.
Returning to the data from Distimo. Looking at the dynamics of profit growth presented by the company for the year only on the Russian market of iPhone applications, you can simply multiply it by $ 137 million and get a figure of $ 315 million.
But don’t forget that the Android store’s profit growth rate is higher. So the figure may, in the end, turn out to be more delicious.
According to the forecast of J’son & Partners Consulting, the volume of the Russian mobile application market in 2013 will amount to $246 million.
And what do you think the market volume will be at the end of this year? How did you think?