According to analysts, sales of Android-based mobile apps will soon overtake the Apple App Store. However, according to other forecasts, the dominance of piracy and malware can finally convince developers that it is impossible to make money on Android applications.
According to calculations by Nick Dillion, an analyst at the Ovum research firm, in 2011 Android mobile applications will be downloaded 8.1 billion times, while the estimated number of downloads of Apple AppStore applications will be only 6 billion.
In addition to the Android Market, Amazon and Getjar, Android-based apps can also be downloaded from many other Android online stores. Ovum believes that Apple cannot compete with so many online stores, but it can “win” due to the higher cost of applications.
According to forecasts, Apple’s profit from the sale of applications in 5 years will amount to $ 2.86 billion, while sales in Android online stores will not exceed $ 1.5 billion. And this is taking into account the fact that in 2016 the expected number of downloads of Android-based applications (21.8 billion) will be 2 times higher than the number of downloads from the Apple AppStore (11.6 billion).
Incorrect Ovum Forecasts
However, in July 2010, Ovum predicted that “in the coming years, Apple will gradually lose its leading position in the mobile application market due to increasing competition from Android, Symbian and BlackBerry.
It should be noted that this forecast was made before the decrease in sales of Windows Phone 7, BlackBerry and Symbian in the mobile market.
In 2010, analysts predicted that by 2015 the share of Apple app sales would decrease from 67% (2009) to 22%, while the share of Symbian sales would increase to 19%. At that time, analysts believed that “now the iPhone is leading in the mobile application sector, but over time the gap between the iPhone and other smartphones will noticeably narrow.” Now, a year later, Ovum believes that Apple will still remain the leader in terms of sales, despite the greater number of downloads of Android applications.
A lot of applications, but little profit
One of the reasons for the large number of downloads of Android applications are the so–called “dummy” applications, that is, rigtons and backgrounds.
In addition, developers of Android applications are concerned about the high level of piracy. Study Carla Hoey, an analyst at the Yankee Group, shows that “piracy is a serious problem for Android, and Google is not taking steps to improve the situation.”
Android developers make less profit from paid apps than iPhone developers, the report notes. In order to reduce the high level of piracy, Android developers are advised to “consider introducing business models that would make it possible to profit not only from direct sales of applications, but also, for example, through banner ads or in-app purchases.”
27% of Android developers see piracy as a huge problem, another 26% find it somewhat dangerous. As many as 53% believe that Google is too relaxed about the policy on the Android Market. Although Google has promised to remove all malware from its software stores, many of them already have a quarter of a million downloads.
Android apps are the easiest to hackBut Google is not the only company selling Android–based apps.
There are many other app stores that sometimes openly distribute illegal copies of apps. This is done in order to distribute malware under the guise of functioning applications.
According to Howe, three-quarters of Android developers admit that it is quite easy to copy and republish an Android-based application, and half of them are sure that it is not at all difficult to perform any pirated actions on Android applications.
According to recent reports by Lookout and Retrevio, malware on mobile devices has become detected 85% more often. They also calculated that users of Android-based applications are 2.5 times more susceptible to mobile viruses than six months ago, while often they do not even know about their existence.
Both research companies compared the security level of Android and iOS-based applications. Lookout, in particular, described a new type of virus attack (“malvertizing”), which encouraged Android users to download viruses through links embedded in the application itself. Note that this operation is simply impossible on iOS.
It’s not just sales that suffer from piracy on Android
According to Howe, in addition to losses in the sale of applications, 32% of Android developers incurred additional costs and another quarter faced increased server costs. A third of developers admitted that they lost more than $ 10,000 due to piracy, which makes Android not the most profitable platform for developers, and this despite the fact that Android users prefer free apps, despite the high download rates published by Ovum.
“The Android app market is like a Wild West world with no sheriff,” writes Howe. “Taking into account the other five largest mobile operating systems, Google simply cannot allow pirates to alienate developers. They need to introduce a certain law or order, otherwise they will lose developers, and then customers.”