New gachi will appear in mobile games. Forecast from GameRefinery

So say the analysts from GameRefinery in their new study.

They also clarify that gacha is the most popular as a mechanic in Japan (it is present in 92 of the 100 highest-grossing mobile titles in the country) and in the USA (it is in one form or another in 80% of the highest-grossing local games).

According to analysts, the following types of gacha are most common on the mobile market today:

• “boxed” (box gacha) — the user takes out a random example from the set, which is then removed from the gacha pool (example — Honkai Impact 3rd);gacha with the accrual of points (charge point gacha) — the rarity of the items received increases as players earn special points (Monster Strike);
• cumulative gacha (step-up gacha) — the probability of getting a rare item increases with each attempt (Bleach: Brave Souls).
• As GameRefinery notes, this year mobile games with gacha can adopt some elements from titles with loot boxes.

And here is an important point: as a rule, a loot box is a synonym for gacha. However, in GameRefinery, they do not put an equal sign between them.

Analysts consider Gacha to be the mechanics of getting random rewards, and loot boxes are similar features, which at the same time allows you to spend money on getting specific desired items.

We leave this approach to understanding the elements on the conscience of GameRefinery.

So what new elements should appear in the gacha this year?

The possibility of previewing items falling out of a certain set is predicted to be widespread. In a number of large desktop and console games with loot boxes, this practice has become widespread at the request of state regulators (for example, in FIFA, where there are sets of cards with a preview of the contents). Now it should become a common practice in mobile.  

GameRefinery believes that the presence of previews contradicts the very essence of gacha, but they immediately note that this practice will lead to new ways of monetization:

• opportunities to preview only a limited number of items per day;blocking the possibility of previewing the next day in case the player refuses to purchase the already viewed gacha;
• the introduction of a large number of social mechanics into the gacha by analogy with the mobile Kotodaman player — you can scroll through the same gacha six times in it so that everyone can choose a character from the pool.
• By the way, according to analysts, it is the development of social elements in mobile gacha games that will become one of the main trends of 2022.

The full GameRefinery forecast can be found here.