2024 will be a difficult year for the US gaming market, predicts analyst Mat Piscatella from Circana. He expects Americans to spend less on video games than in 2023.
Helldivers 2
"Right now, my most optimistic forecast is a 2% drop in spending. If you look more pessimistically, the drop will be 10%. If things don't go well at all, then the figure will be a little more," Piscatella said in an interview with the publication GamesIndustry.biz .
The drop is partly due to the contrast with 2023 in terms of major game releases. For example, Piscatella notes, Hogwarts Legacy was released last year, which became the most successful game of 2023 and continues to sell well. In 2024, games of this level are not expected yet. Piscatella admits that "out of nowhere" Helldivers 2 and Palworld have become hits, but these games are not enough to grow sales.
Game retailers will face great difficulties, the analyst believes. In particular, due to the fact that Nintendo is not going to release the Nintendo Switch 2 in 2024. According to Piscatella, physical sales of games have been declining in the United States for a long time and the lack of a new Switch does not improve the situation. However, retailers have recently started to make good money selling gift cards for Fortnite and Roblox.
However, Piscatella believes that in 2025, spending on video games will start to grow again, largely thanks to GTA VI. In his opinion, the release of the Rockstar Games game will be one of the most important in the history of the industry.
Recall, according to Circana, in 2023, the revenue of the American gaming market amounted to 57.2 billion dollars. This amount includes the expenses of Americans both for the purchase of the games themselves ($47.9 billion) and for the purchase of consoles ($6.58 billion) and gaming accessories ($2.6 billion).