Matej Lancaric, who previously led the marketing teams at Pixel Federation, BoomBit, and SuperScale, wrote an extensive article about the importance of prolonged soft launches for mobile games. He believes that projects without proper testing are at risk of failing upon release.
TrainStation 3 by Pixel Federation
As Lancaric writes, many mobile developers get by with a month or even just a few days of soft launch, but such a short test does not provide an adequate picture. In his view, a soft launch should last no less than three months, preferably six months or more.
“I really want to know what the retention curve looks like. Not only on the first, third, and seventh days but also on the 14th and 30th days, and ideally on the 60th and 90th days as well. Early retention metrics can be misleading: a game that appears to perform well on the seventh day might rapidly lose popularity by the 30th day. Without extended testing, you won’t be able to foresee this,” Lancaric explained.
The same, noted the expert, applies to the dynamics of LTV with ROAS. Initial figures cannot accurately calculate everything, but a prolonged soft launch allows time for experimentation and observation.
Lancaric pointed out that in a good scenario, by the release the game’s retention should be 40% on the first day (preferably 50%), 20% on the seventh day, and 10% on the 30th day. The numbers may vary depending on the genre, but it’s important for retention to have a “healthy” curve without sharp drops. Furthermore, LTV should be higher than the CPI; without this, releasing the game is risky.